This set of images shows the observed distribution of Arctic vegetation (left) in relation to the predicted distribution of vegetation under a climate warming scenario for the 2050s (right). Data used to generate the observed image are from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (2003). (Credit: AMNH/R. Pearson)
Article: "New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades"
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130331165603.htm
Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.
"Such widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation would have impacts that reverberate through the global ecosystem," said Richard Pearson, lead author on the paper and a research scientist at the American Museum of Natural History's Center for Biodiversity and Conservation.
Plant growth in Arctic ecosystems has increased over the past few decades, a trend that coincides with increases in temperatures, which are rising at about twice the global rate. The research team -- which includes scientists from the Museum, AT&T Labs-Research, Woods Hole Research Center, Colgate University, Cornell University, and the University of York -- used climate scenarios for the 2050s to explore how this trend is likely to continue in the future. The scientists developed models that statistically predict the types of plants that could grow under certain temperatures and precipitation. Although it comes with some uncertainty, this type of modeling is a robust way to study the Arctic because the harsh climate limits the range of plants that can grow, making this system simpler to model compared to other regions such as the tropics.
The models reveal the potential for massive redistribution of vegetation across the Arctic under future climate, with about half of all vegetation switching to a different class and a massive increase in tree cover. What might this look like? In Siberia, for instance, trees could grow hundreds of miles north of the present tree line.
"These impacts would extend far beyond the Arctic region," Pearson said. "For example, some species of birds seasonally migrate from lower latitudes and rely on finding particular polar habitats, such as open space for ground-nesting."
In addition, the researchers investigated the multiple climate change feedbacks that greening would produce. They found that a phenomenon called the albedo effect, based on the reflectivity of Earth's surface, would have the greatest impact on the Arctic's climate. When the sun hits snow, most of the radiation is reflected back to space. But when it hits an area that's "dark," or covered in trees or shrubs, more sunlight is absorbed in the area and temperature increases. This has a positive feedback to climate warming: the more vegetation there is, the more warming will occur.
"By incorporating observed relationships between plants and albedo, we show that vegetation distribution shifts will result in an overall positive feedback to climate that is likely to cause greater warming than has previously been predicted," said co-author Scott Goetz, of the Woods Hole Research Center.
This work was funded by the National Science Foundation, grants IPY 0732948, IPY 0732954, and Expeditions 0832782. Other authors involved in this study include Steven Phillips (AT&T Labs-Research), Michael Loranty (Woods Hole Research Center and Colgate University), Pieter Beck (Woods Hole Research Center), Theodoros Damoulas (Cornell University), and Sarah Knight (American Museum of Natural History and University of York).
Journal Reference:
Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.
"Such widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation would have impacts that reverberate through the global ecosystem," said Richard Pearson, lead author on the paper and a research scientist at the American Museum of Natural History's Center for Biodiversity and Conservation.
Plant growth in Arctic ecosystems has increased over the past few decades, a trend that coincides with increases in temperatures, which are rising at about twice the global rate. The research team -- which includes scientists from the Museum, AT&T Labs-Research, Woods Hole Research Center, Colgate University, Cornell University, and the University of York -- used climate scenarios for the 2050s to explore how this trend is likely to continue in the future. The scientists developed models that statistically predict the types of plants that could grow under certain temperatures and precipitation. Although it comes with some uncertainty, this type of modeling is a robust way to study the Arctic because the harsh climate limits the range of plants that can grow, making this system simpler to model compared to other regions such as the tropics.
The models reveal the potential for massive redistribution of vegetation across the Arctic under future climate, with about half of all vegetation switching to a different class and a massive increase in tree cover. What might this look like? In Siberia, for instance, trees could grow hundreds of miles north of the present tree line.
"These impacts would extend far beyond the Arctic region," Pearson said. "For example, some species of birds seasonally migrate from lower latitudes and rely on finding particular polar habitats, such as open space for ground-nesting."
In addition, the researchers investigated the multiple climate change feedbacks that greening would produce. They found that a phenomenon called the albedo effect, based on the reflectivity of Earth's surface, would have the greatest impact on the Arctic's climate. When the sun hits snow, most of the radiation is reflected back to space. But when it hits an area that's "dark," or covered in trees or shrubs, more sunlight is absorbed in the area and temperature increases. This has a positive feedback to climate warming: the more vegetation there is, the more warming will occur.
"By incorporating observed relationships between plants and albedo, we show that vegetation distribution shifts will result in an overall positive feedback to climate that is likely to cause greater warming than has previously been predicted," said co-author Scott Goetz, of the Woods Hole Research Center.
This work was funded by the National Science Foundation, grants IPY 0732948, IPY 0732954, and Expeditions 0832782. Other authors involved in this study include Steven Phillips (AT&T Labs-Research), Michael Loranty (Woods Hole Research Center and Colgate University), Pieter Beck (Woods Hole Research Center), Theodoros Damoulas (Cornell University), and Sarah Knight (American Museum of Natural History and University of York).
Journal Reference:
- Richard G. Pearson, Steven J. Phillips, Michael M. Loranty, Pieter S. A. Beck, Theodoros Damoulas, Sarah J. Knight, Scott J. Goetz. Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1858
Article Response: Climate-warming and Increased Arctic Vegetation (and More)
Contemplating the controversial effects of global-/climate-warming and overall change in atmospheric predictability, I have discovered that the albedo effect, which is described by the article as being "based on the reflectivity of Earth's surface," has resulted in a variety of occurrences that have proven indicators of drastic and future upsets to the planet's homeostatic equilibrium. In fact, the Web site Windows2Universe.org has well-described a phenomenon called "ice-albedo feedback," which is as follows:
"Because Earth’s temperature is climbing as more greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere, the snow on top of the ice melts earlier in the spring. A little later each autumn, temperatures drop to the chilly levels needed for sea ice to again form. There is more time during the summer for the compounding cycle of melting ice, lowering albedo, trapping of more solar energy, and more ice melt. And there is less time in the winter for ice to reform" (http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/polar/ice_albedo_feedback.html).
A major concern I can foresee with this situation is that it is combined with humans' rampant consumption and use of factors that reduce the ozone layer--such as CFCs and halons (used in some fire extinguishers, in cases where materials and equipment would be destroyed by water or other fire-extinguisher chemicals--http://www.bcairquality.ca/101/ozone-depletion-causes.html). Also, a commonly known tragedy that results from global warming is the rapid endangerment of the polar bear and other valuable and beloved characters of the Arctic regions. As these creatures lose their respective homes, citizens everywhere are reminded of the sheer importance of preserving such wildlife from further threats of endangerment and even extinction. This would harshly decrease the fullness and richness of diversity in the animal kingdom, and coincide with increased sites of vegetation, which, as the article above states, would resemble a new Siberia with trees abound in the formerly starkly white regions. The more vegetation there is, the more warming there will be (paraphrased from article).
One of the most fearsome aspects of all these discoveries is the realization that, for now, Earth is creation's only home. Where are we to go if we rape and pillage Mother Earth of Her resources and gifts to us so much that she retaliates by simply proactively refusing to allow us to inhabit her plentiful lands and waters any longer? Where will we be then? This is the sadness of our times, in this post-modern era of selfish waste and endless consumption.
"Because Earth’s temperature is climbing as more greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere, the snow on top of the ice melts earlier in the spring. A little later each autumn, temperatures drop to the chilly levels needed for sea ice to again form. There is more time during the summer for the compounding cycle of melting ice, lowering albedo, trapping of more solar energy, and more ice melt. And there is less time in the winter for ice to reform" (http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/polar/ice_albedo_feedback.html).
A major concern I can foresee with this situation is that it is combined with humans' rampant consumption and use of factors that reduce the ozone layer--such as CFCs and halons (used in some fire extinguishers, in cases where materials and equipment would be destroyed by water or other fire-extinguisher chemicals--http://www.bcairquality.ca/101/ozone-depletion-causes.html). Also, a commonly known tragedy that results from global warming is the rapid endangerment of the polar bear and other valuable and beloved characters of the Arctic regions. As these creatures lose their respective homes, citizens everywhere are reminded of the sheer importance of preserving such wildlife from further threats of endangerment and even extinction. This would harshly decrease the fullness and richness of diversity in the animal kingdom, and coincide with increased sites of vegetation, which, as the article above states, would resemble a new Siberia with trees abound in the formerly starkly white regions. The more vegetation there is, the more warming there will be (paraphrased from article).
One of the most fearsome aspects of all these discoveries is the realization that, for now, Earth is creation's only home. Where are we to go if we rape and pillage Mother Earth of Her resources and gifts to us so much that she retaliates by simply proactively refusing to allow us to inhabit her plentiful lands and waters any longer? Where will we be then? This is the sadness of our times, in this post-modern era of selfish waste and endless consumption.